"Russia regains formal freedom to expand" - yes, but why only Russia? The "formal freedom" seems more important to the US. Russia would be perfectly happy not to have this freedom, especially, as you correctly note, its capability to take advantage of it is limited.
And I would disagree about the role of China - Russia would be happy "to accept any framework that locks it into parity with the United States." Parity with the US is the key concept here.
I just messaged you on Twitter about this because I wanted to know what you thought of the piece. I actually agree with your final point to be honest, I should have been clearer on the importance of parity with the U.S. It was more about the trilateral side of things but yea locking U.S. into parity is good for Russia. Also agree on “formal freedom” being more important for U.S.
"Russia regains formal freedom to expand" - yes, but why only Russia? The "formal freedom" seems more important to the US. Russia would be perfectly happy not to have this freedom, especially, as you correctly note, its capability to take advantage of it is limited.
And I would disagree about the role of China - Russia would be happy "to accept any framework that locks it into parity with the United States." Parity with the US is the key concept here.
I just messaged you on Twitter about this because I wanted to know what you thought of the piece. I actually agree with your final point to be honest, I should have been clearer on the importance of parity with the U.S. It was more about the trilateral side of things but yea locking U.S. into parity is good for Russia. Also agree on “formal freedom” being more important for U.S.
Sorry I wrote the piece in like 30 minutes, if I write something longer, I’ll integrate those points.